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Situational Awareness and the New Economics of Expertise

I recently spent time at a private mastermind with about 30 coaches and educators whose names you’d probably recognize.

These are people who’ve built businesses in the millions or tens of millions of dollars. Their programs are high quality. And they aren’t AI holdouts. The group was selected for how proactive its members are with AI.

By my estimate, about 80% of them are seeing a 30% to 40% drop in their business.

That’s my read of the room, not a survey. But the same pattern is showing up elsewhere:

  • Books: Tim Ferriss published his own numbers in June. U.S. print sales of his books fell 46% in 2025, and this year they were on pace to fall another 57%.

  • Courses: The morning of this class, a multiple New York Times best-selling author messaged me to ask whether I was seeing course sales fall too.

  • Advice: People I’ve talked to in the book industry told me fiction is actually growing while traditional advice books are dropping drastically. The data agrees. Through early October, Publishers Wee…

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